End-of-First-Life Inbound Forecast
Long-term forecast of end-of-first-life failures using a bathtub lifetime model
This tool estimates when products reach end of first life and how many units may fail each year. It reads product cohorts from an Excel workbook and applies a bathtub-curve failure model. Monte Carlo simulation adds uncertainty bands around the yearly failure totals.
The downloadable workbook is pre-filled with an example from the REMASC reference case. Download it, upload it without changes, and run a forecast to see typical output. When you are ready, open the file in Excel, replace the example rows with your own product lines, parameters, and material shares, and upload again.
Each row represents a product line or model (for example a vehicle variant). Use a separate MC workbook per lifetime scenario: low, middle, or high in the filename (for example POM260203-low-fail-MC.xls). The server reads the scenario from the file name you upload.
For methodology, how to read the chart, and an example figure, see Learn More.
A full forecast uses 500 Monte Carlo runs and may take one to three minutes. Keep this tab open until the results section appears.
How to use this tool
- Download the REMASC MC workbook (.xls). The example uses the middle lifetime scenario (filename contains middle).
- Upload that file unchanged, or edit the workbook first and upload your own version. Keep low, middle, or high in the filename before -fail-MC.xls (for example …-middle-fail-MC.xls) so the server knows which scenario to run.
- Run forecast. Your chart and summary table appear further down this page.
- Optionally export the summary as CSV or download the full forecast Excel from the results.
For questions about the End-of-First-Life Inbound Forecast tool, contact remasc@sude.be.
The End-of-First-Life Inbound Forecast was developed within the REMASC Flanders Make SBO programme, with support from Flanders Make and project partners working on circular recovery and long-term planning of inbound failure volumes.
